Total load activity increased 8.7% to the strongest level since July 2022 as flatbed continued to outpace van equipment. Volume was 21% higher than in the same 2024 week but 12% below the five-year average for the week. Total truck postings eased 0.1%, and the Market Demand Index – the ratio of load postings to truck postings in the system – rose to its strongest level since May 2022. Flatbed continues to be the principal driver of the rising MDI.
The total market broker-posted spot rate increased 5.4 cents – the second strongest gain of the year so far – to its highest level since June 2023. Total rates were up 4.7% y/y – the strongest prior-year comparison since May 2022 – but were about 4% below the five-year average for the week. As with volume and MDI, the strong performance of total rates is due principally to flatbed. Rates excluding a calculated fuel surcharge – an adjustment that isolates the portion of all-in rates not needed to recoup fuel costs – were up about 10 y/y. During the current week (week 13) of the year, dry van and refrigerated rates usually fall, although both increased in week 13 of last year. Flatbed rates almost always rise during that week.
Dry van spot rates rose 3.5 cents, which is the largest of the three week-over-week rate increase of the year to date. Rates were less than 1% below the same 2024 week and more than 15% below the five-year average for the week. Excluding a calculated fuel surcharge, dry van rates were up 4.5% y/y. Dry van loads increased 7.0%. Volume was more than 2% below the same 2024 week and almost 35% below the five-year average.
Refrigerated spot rates increased 2 cents for only the third week-over-week gain of the year so far. Rates were more than 4% below the same 2024 week and nearly 17% below the five-year average for the week. Excluding a calculated fuel surcharge, refrigerated rates were down 1% y/y. Refrigerated loads increased 4.3%. Volume was nearly 8% below the same 2024 week and about 40% below the five-year average.
Flatbed spot rates jumped 5.6 cents, which is the second strongest increase since October; week 10 of this year saw the strongest rate increase since October. Rates were just under 5% above the same 2024 week – the strongest prior-year comparison since July 2022 – but were still almost 3% below the five-year average for the week. Rates excluding a calculated fuel surcharge were up about 10% y/y. Flatbed loads rose 9.7%. Volume was more than 33% above the same 2024 week and was just over 1% below the five-year average. We have speculated that pull-forwards of equipment and metals imports to avoid tariffs might be a significant driver of load growth. If so, we would expect some moderation soon.