Spot rates mixed but follow seasonal expectations

The total broker-posted spot market rate in the Truckstop system was essentially unchanged during the week ended January 31 (week 4), but spot rates for dry van and refrigerated equipment fell while flatbed spot rates rose. The moves for rates in all three equipment types matched the typical pattern for late January. Dry van spot rates are the lowest since Thanksgiving, but refrigerated rates have not quite given back their holiday-period surge. Flatbed spot rates are the highest in 14 weeks.

Total load activity rose 4% after falling more than 15% during the previous week, which included a federal holiday. Volume was about 6% below the same 2024 week and almost 33% below the five-year average for the week. Total truck postings rose 6.6%, and the Market Demand Index – the ratio of load postings to truck postings in the system – fell to its lowest level of the year so far.

The total market broker-posted spot rate inched up a tenth of a cent, thus technically rising for the first time in five weeks. Rates were down 3.4% from the same 2024 week and about 7% below the five-year average for the week. Rates excluding a calculated surcharge were down close to 3% y/y. Rate changes during the current week (week 5) have been less consistent over time than in week 4.

Dry van spot rates decreased about 9 cents – the largest drop since February of last year – after declining more than 3 cents in the previous week. Rates were more than 5% below the same 2024 week and more than 9% below the five-year average for the week. Rates excluding a calculated fuel surcharge were down nearly 5% y/y. Dry van loads ticked up 0.6%. Volume was about 21% below the same 2024 week and about 37% below the five-year average.

Refrigerated spot rates fell about 10 cents after dropping more than 11 cents during the prior week. After rising nearly 40 cents in four weeks, refrigerated rates have fallen close to 37 cents in three weeks. Rates were 4.5% below the same 2024 week and about 7% below the five-year average for the week. Rates excluding a calculated fuel surcharge were down 4% y/y. Refrigerated loads fell 10.3%. Volume was more than 22% below the same 2024 week and almost 38% below the five-year average.

Flatbed spot rates rose 4.5 cents – the strongest increase since October – after holding basically unchanged in the previous week. Rates were more than 3% below the same 2024 week and more than 6% below the five-year average for the week. Rates excluding a calculated fuel surcharge were down 2.5% y/y. Flatbed loads rose 10.3%. Volume was nearly 12% above the same 2024 week but 33% below the five-year average.

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