October Commentaries

 

Can the Consumer Support the Economy Alone?
By Steve Graham, Partner

The U.S. consumer is carrying the economy. This article addresses the question of how strong consumption will be in the future as trade tensions are undermining business confidence and slowing capital investment. Can the consumer stand alone?

 

Driver Supply: What the Data Tells Us
By Kristen Monaco, Bureau of Labor Statistics
and Jonathan Starks, FTR Chief Intelligence Officer 

One of the chronic debates in trucking is the extent - and even the very existence - of driver shortages. Kristen Monaco, associate commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and a leading researcher in truck driver dynamics, clarified some of the confusion surrounding driver availability in September at the 2019 FTR Transportation Conference. 

 

What is the Trade War’s Impact on U.S Manufacturing?
By Don Ake, VP of Commercial Vehicles

Ake's take on the trade war provides insight on the impact of the trade war with China on US manufacturing. 

 

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Conditions Indices & Equipment Orders

 

FTR Trucking Conditions Index for August Reflects Mediocre Environment for Carriers

Trucking Conditions Index

FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index for August, at a -1.11 reading, was negatively impacted by weak utilization and higher financing costs. FTR forecasts that the TCI will hover around the neutral range through 2020.

Active truck utilization edged down in August to 87.4%. Although FTR’s current outlook calls for a gradual firming, active utilization is expected to remain below the 10-year average of 91% through 2020. Freight-related indicators continue to diverge between the no-growth industrial sector and the still-growing consumer sector. FTR’s loadings outlook is for a 0.5% increase in 2019 and 0.9% growth in 2020.

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FTR’s August Shippers Conditions Index Reflects a Still-Positive Rate Environment

FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index (SCI) for August at a 6.4 reading reflects a still-positive rate outlook. The August SCI improved from July but falls below June’s 8.8 reading which likely represents the peak of the current cycle.

FTR projects a softening in the SCI measure due to firmer freight rates. However, the index is projected to stay in positive territory through 2020. The sizable unknown is how IMO2020 ultimately affects fuel prices and the associated shipping costs. This will be monitored closely by FTR.  

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FTR Reports a Rebound in Trailer Orders in September

FTR reports preliminary trailer orders for September at 19,000 units, the highest since February. Trailer order activity rebounded from the recent doldrums as some fleets began placing orders for 2020. Orders were up 81% m/m but minus 66% y/y. September's net orders could have been even higher but were negatively affected by fleet cancellations of excess 2019 orders. Trailer production should remain sturdy in September but somewhat off recent months with backlogs expected to drop for the ninth consecutive month. Trailer orders for the past 12 months now total 264,000 units.

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FTR Reports North American Class 8 Orders for September Stuck in Down Cycle

FTR reports preliminary North American Class 8 orders for September at 12,100 units, up 13% m/m but down 72% y/y. Class 8 orders continue to track in the 10,000-13,000-unit range for the fifth month in a row. Fleets are moving around, or canceling orders previously placed but are not ordering many new trucks for Q4 delivery. Carriers have not begun ordering for 2020 requirements yet, due to the tariffs and the economic uncertainty. Class 8 orders for the past 12 months have totaled 214,000 units.

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