October Commentaries

 

OECD Index

 

The State of the Global Economy
By Steve Graham, FTR Partner

The September reading of the Organization of Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) composite leading indicator came in at 98.8 in September. Coronavirus is impacting different countries with different economic impacts. As we approach 2021, it may be wise to ascertain what the OECD index can teach us about the future.

 

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C-Suite Synopsis
State of Freight Insights

A strong start to the fourth quarter is the result of robust underlying consumer demand and inventory restocking, especially in retail. This combination has led to a need for speed among beneficial cargo owners that is creating port congestion and other issues in the supply chain.

 

SOF TODAY - Rail & Intermodal -01

 

The Future of Rail & Intermodal Q&A
The FTR Experts

Following The Future of Rail & Intermodal, the fourth session of the FTR Engage virtual speaking series, the FTR Experts sat down with Ross Corthell (Packaging Corporation of America) to answer listener questions beyond what was covered during the Q&A within the presentation.

Topics covered in the Q&A:

  • Q1: The migration of freight towards rail & intermodal.
  • Q2: The indicators that you should be watching.
  • Q3: Rail growth & furloughs.
  • Q4: Shippers’ view of the job market.
  • Q5: Intermodal freight & Drayage cost efficiency.
  • Q6: Southern California’s impact on freight markets.
  • Q7: How can the industry work together to ensure extra capacity?
  • Q8: Headhaul and backhaul pricing in rail.
  • Q9: Intermodal volumes through restocking and a pre-stocking rush.s

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Conditions Indices & Equipment Orders

FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index for August Reflected a Very Strong Month for Carriers

Trucking Conditions Index
FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index for August jumped to a positive reading of 8.31, reflecting the very favorable rate environment for trucking during the month. Except for June of this year, the August reading was the highest for the index since March 2018. FTR expects the TCI to fall slightly in September and continue into single digit positive readings in Q4 and into 2021.


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FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index for August Reflect Weakest Shipping Conditions in Two Years

The FTR Shippers Conditions Index (SCI) for August fell further into negative territory to a reading of -1.79. Just four months after the strongest market conditions on record, shipping conditions in August were the weakest in two years.

While most factors affecting the Shipping Conditions Index in August were equal to or more favorable than in July, the rate environment was significantly more unfavorable for shippers. The short-term outlook is for the SCI to improve; however, it is expected to become significantly negative in the second half of 2021 primarily due to tighter capacity and higher shipping rates.

 

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FTR Reports Preliminary U.S. Net Trailer Orders for September Exploded to 52,000 Units,

The Third Highest Month on Record

FTR reports that preliminary U.S. net trailer orders for September exploded to the third-highest month ever, at 52,000 units. September’s orders were 23,500 units above August and 33,400 more than September 2019. With this latest activity, trailer orders for the last twelve months now equal 224,100 units.

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FTR Reports Preliminary North American Class 8 Net Orders Surge in September to 32,000 Units

FTR reports preliminary North American Class 8 net orders surged in September to the highest total since October 2018, hitting 32,000 units. September order activity was up 55% m/m and 160% y/y. Class 8 net orders for the last 12 months now total 197,000 units.

Fleets have renewed confidence, and the stronger than expected economic and freight recovery is spurring equipment orders. The orders are a combination of growing replacement demand and some expansion demand in those regions where capacity is tightening. The uncertainty about the pandemic continues to fade, as more sectors of the economy reopen and consumer mobility increases.

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