Spot market imbalance surges to record high

More loads and fewer trucks in the Truckstop.com system during the week ended August 7 (week 31) resulted in the highest Market Demand Index (MDI) on record, surpassing the prior record hit in early June 2018. Load postings rose 5.4% from the prior week as weak volume growth in flatbed dragged down stronger increases in dry van and refrigerated. Spot rates were higher in all three segments, but as with loads, the rate increases were much stronger in dry van and refrigerated than in flatbed.


Total Spot Loads

Load volume during week 31 was the highest since the middle of 2018. Loads were about 61% higher than the same week last year and nearly 70% above the five-year average. Aside from two weeks when federal holidays depressed spot market capacity, the 6.6% decline in truck postings was the largest since late April. The resulting surge in the ratio of loads to trucks pushed the MDI higher than during week 23 of 2018.

The new record MDI is especially impressive because the prior peak occurred during a week that was fueled in large part by the Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance’s International Roadcheck roadside inspection event. International Roadcheck this year had been rescheduled to early May before being cancelled altogether due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The MDI was higher in all three segments, and the MDIs for dry van and refrigerated surged to record levels. Although the flatbed MDI edged up just slightly it was the highest since mid-2018.



Dry Van Spot LoadsDry van loads increased 8.9% from the prior week. Volume is 94% higher than the same week last year and 93% above the five-year average. Dry van loads in week 31 were the strongest since the end of June 2018 and were surpassed only by four weeks in June of that year. All regions except the South Central region saw week-over-week growth.

 

 

 



Refrigerated Spot LoadsRefrigerated spot loads rose 9.9% over the prior week. Volume was about 48% higher than last year and about 67% above the five-year average for the week. Refrigerated load postings in week 31 did not match week 11 of this year during the peak of the grocery restocking push, but they otherwise were highest since the end of June 2018. Loads were higher in all regions week over week, although the growth in the South Central and Southeast regions was slight compared to other regions.

 



Flatbed Spot LoadsFlatbed spot loads were up 1%. Flatbed volume has held mostly flat since mid-June and is – unlike dry van and refrigerated – showing no signs of a renewed surge. Even so, loads were 57% higher than last year and nearly 59% above the five-year average. Flatbed loads also were ahead of 2018 levels for the second straight week, although by this point in 2018 the flatbed spot market had cooled substantially. Loads were up in all regions except the South Central region, although volume in the Midwest was barely above flat, and the growth in the Southeast was slight.




Spot Truck Loads vs RatesThe broker-posted rate per mile excluding fuel surcharges increased nearly 4 cents to the highest level since September 2018. Rates were about 17% above last year and about 10% above the five-year average. Dry van rates increased about 9 cents and were about 35% above last year and about 24% above the five-year average. Refrigerated rates also were up about 9 cents and were nearly 27% above last year and about 18% higher than the five-year average. Flatbed rates, which were up less than a penny, were 12% higher than the same 2019 week and more than 5% above the five-year average.


 

 


 
Leveraging robust Truckstop.com data with the expert analysis of FTR Transportation Intelligence, Truckstop.com and FTR partner to bring you timely and relevant transportation market forecasts and analyses to help you run your business.