November Commentaries

 

What’s up with Housing? Flat or up, where is housing going?
By Steve Graham, FTR Partner

Housing has been giving us some mixed signals lately. Several questions rise to the surface. Is housing on a long-term upwards meaningful trend? Or is the market going to return to the almost flat trend of the last few years? 

 

Assessing The Freight Markets
By Eric Starks, Chairman and CEO and Avery Vise, VP of Trucking

As we near the end of the year, Eric Starks and Avery Vise sat down to discuss what we are seeing in the freight markets and what that will likely mean for the transportation industry in the near future. Their conversation delves deep into trucking, shippers and brokers, and the broader economy, with a brief look at the rail side as well.

 

Trucking Regulation Insights: Hours-of-Service Reform
Pulled from the FTR State of Freight INSIGHTS

FTR concludes that the final ELD transition and the drug and alcohol testing clearinghouse could disrupt driver productivity and supply, but a fast-tracked rulemaking on hours-of-service promises greater flexibility in 2021. In an October State of Freight INSIGHTS report on Trucking Regulations that spanned 11 pages, FTR provided a clear and concise overview of all of these issues. In this commentary, we provide you with an extract from this report showing the hours-of-service reform.

Complete the form to the right to download these commentaries.

 

 

Conditions Indices & Equipment Orders

FTR September Trucking Conditions Index Reflects Broadly Weaker Environment
Trucking Conditions Index

FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index for September, at -2.94, was the lowest reading since May, reflecting a relatively week environment for carriers. However, FTR does not forecast any further eroding of the TCI with an expected near-neutral measure through the first half of 2020.

Details of the TCI for September are found in the November issue of FTR’s Trucking Update, published October 31. The ‘Notes by the Dashboard Light’ section analyzes trucking failures, the total number of carriers operating and the effect on overall capacity. Along with the TCI and ‘Notes by the Dashboard Light,’ the Trucking Update includes data and analysis on load volumes, the capacity environment, rates, costs, and the truck driver situation.

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FTR’s September Shippers Conditions Index Stays in Positive Territory

FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index (SCI) for September remained unchanged from August at a 6.4 reading. All measures included in the SCI were positive with less favorable fuel pricing offsetting more favorable freight volume, capacity utilization, and logistics cost factors.

 

FTR projects the Shippers Conditions Index to trend towards neutral through 2020 as freight demand softens and capacity utilization firms.  The potential impact of a global reduction in the sulfur content of marine fuel due to IMO 2020 remains a wildcard.  

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FTR Reports 2020 Trailer Ordering Season Off to Vibrant Start with 31,800 Preliminary Orders

FTR reports that preliminary trailer orders for October were in line with expectations at 31,800 units, up 71% from September. October activity was the highest since November 2018, pointing to a vibrant start for the 2020 trailer ordering season. Regardless, orders were down significantly (-42%) y/y from 2018 near-record volume. Trailer orders for the past 12 months now total 241,000 units.

The high October order totals were achieved despite still elevated cancellations, as a few OEM’s continue to clean up their 2019 backlogs. October production is expected to be down moderately on a per-day basis due to seasonal factors, with backlogs climbing slightly for the first time in ten months.

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FTR Reports October North American Class 8 Orders at 22,100 Units

FTR reports preliminary North American Class 8 orders for October at 22,100 units, the highest level since November of 2018, but still far below a year ago. October 2019 order activity was the weakest performance for the month since 2016.

While October orders were the highest this year and up 79% m/m they were 51% lower than October 2018, signifying a subdued beginning to the traditional start of the ordering season. The order level was boosted by a couple of big fleets placing large orders into 2020, but otherwise smaller orders were placed for the first quarter build. Cancellations are expected to remain elevated as OEM’s shake out excess 2019 orders from the backlog. Class 8 orders for the past 12 months have totaled 192,000 units.

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