December Commentaries

Looking into the New Year: What Will 2020 Bring?
By Steve Graham, FTR Partner

Looking into 2020, there are several factors that will affect the course of the economy. Some of the factors are economic and some are political in nature. How events unfold will determine the course of the economy through the new-year and into 2021.

 

The 2019 Class 8 Market Was A Thriller
By Don Ake, VP of Commercial Vehicle

You could make a movie out of the dramatic Class 8 market in 2019. And that is exactly what Don Ake does in this commentary taking you through what he describes as one of the most cyclical industries in the entire economy.

 

2020 Economic Outlook & Risks
By Bill Witte, Macroeconomist and Eric Starks, Chairman and CEO

A lot has happened in the economy since our mid-year review. The international economy has weakened, with a definite shove from U.S. trade policy. Domestically the expansion has slowed, with the manufacturing sector shifting into reverse. Adding in impeachment and election year politics, the question as we enter 2020 is whether the overall economy will follow manufacturing into recession. 

 

Complete the form to the right to download these commentaries.

 

 

 

 

 

Conditions Indices & Equipment Orders

FTR September Trucking Conditions Index Improves for October

Trucking Conditions Index

FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index (TCI) for October, at -1.04, reflected improved conditions although still in negative territory. Freight demand was the principal factor driving the improvement. While the industrial economy remains sluggish, strong housing numbers are cause for some optimism. FTR expects trucking to hold steady in a mediocre environment with the TCI hovering close to a neutral reading at least through the first half of 2020. 

Details of the TCI for September are found in the December issue of FTR’s Trucking Update, published November 26th. The ‘Notes by the Dashboard Light’ section looks at the historical correlation between changes in housing-related indicators and recessions. Along with the TCI and ‘Notes by the Dashboard Light,’ the Trucking Update includes data and analysis on load volumes, the capacity environment, rates, costs, and the truck driver situation.

Interactive graph and article >

 

FTR’s September Shippers Conditions Index Stays in Positive Territory

FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index (SCI) for September remained unchanged from August at a 6.4 reading. All measures included in the SCI were positive with less favorable fuel pricing offsetting more favorable freight volume, capacity utilization, and logistics cost factors.

 

FTR projects the Shippers Conditions Index to trend towards neutral through 2020 as freight demand softens and capacity utilization firms.  The potential impact of a global reduction in the sulfur content of marine fuel due to IMO 2020 remains a wildcard.  

Interactive graph and article >

 

 

FTR Reports 2020 Trailer Ordering Season Off to Vibrant Start with 31,800 Preliminary Orders

FTR reports that preliminary trailer orders for October were in line with expectations at 31,800 units, up 71% from September. October activity was the highest since November 2018, pointing to a vibrant start for the 2020 trailer ordering season. Regardless, orders were down significantly (-42%) y/y from 2018 near-record volume. Trailer orders for the past 12 months now total 241,000 units.

The high October order totals were achieved despite still elevated cancellations, as a few OEM’s continue to clean up their 2019 backlogs. October production is expected to be down moderately on a per-day basis due to seasonal factors, with backlogs climbing slightly for the first time in ten months.

Interactive graph and article >

 

 

FFTR Reports November North American Class 8 Orders at a Disappointing 17,300 Units

FTR reports preliminary North American Class 8 orders for November at a disappointing 17,300 units, down 21% from October. This is was the lowest November total since 2015 and was 39% lower than the same month a year ago.

Fleets remain extremely cautious heading into 2020, placing small orders and not extending orders much beyond the first quarter. A couple OEMs reported decent order activity, but total orders fell below expectations. Class 8 orders for the past 12 months have now totaled 180,000 units.

Interactive graph and article >

 

 

Latest Industry News with Intelligence from FTR